246 - Models versus Mosquitoes: Validating Predictions based on CDC Light Trap Data to Improve Operational Decision Making

Thursday, March 26, 2026

11:05 AM - 11:15 AM PDT

Location: B110

Presenter(s)

JH

Jacob D. Hart, Ph.D

Manatee County Mosquito Control District, Florida, United States

Co-Author(s)

Katie Hare Howard, MSc

Senior Biologist
Manatee County Mosquito Control District, Florida, United States
MD

Max Dersch

Manager, Entomology Dept
Manatee County Mosquito Control District, Florida, United States
OV

Olivia Voegelin, n/a

Manatee County Mosquito Control District, Florida, United States
CL

Christopher Lesser, n/a

Director
Manatee County Mosquito Control District, Florida, United States

Abstract: The long-term data collected by CDC light traps may be used to investigate relationships between geographic and climatic variables that determine patterns of mosquito abundance. Using analytical models, with proper care and caution, we predicted the distribution of mosquito populations throughout the 2025 season. Mixed-effect models included random spatio-temporal fields and spatially varying coefficients. We compared the predictions of these models against trap counts at both routine and novel locations to determine their accuracy and validity.
We also applied these analytical methods to quantify the efficacy of aerial missions. This talk serves as a guide for implementing advanced quantitative methods into vital mosquito management tasks to produce real world operational insights. Examples are provided using models based on 14 years of Manatee County’s CDC light trap surveillance.